This paper investigates how exposure to extreme rainfall during early childhood affects cognitive, socio-emotional, and learning outcomes in South Africa. By linking high-resolution climate data with Thrive by Five Index 2024 data, the study provides new evidence on how environmental shocks influence early development. It focuses on the critical early learning period, where children are especially sensitive to disruptions in caregiving, services, and learning environments. The analysis also considers how access to resources and services shapes children’s vulnerability to climate shocks. The findings highlight the intersection between climate risk and structural inequality in shaping early childhood outcomes.

Key findings

Extreme rainfall is associated with slower cognitive and literacy development, especially in deprived areas. Climate shocks disrupt learning environments and caregiving conditions.

Why this matters

Climate shocks are increasing and risk widening inequality in early learning outcomes.

Who this is for

Policymakers, education planners, climate stakeholders, and early learning providers.

Authors: Mateus M. Mazzaferro; Caylee Cook; Joan Lombardi; Philip Fisher
Title: Early Learning Under Climate Stress: Extreme Rainfall and Child Development in South Africa
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