What becomes possible when nationally representative early learning data is released for public use?
On 25 March, DataDrive2030 released the Thrive by Five Index 2024 dataset, hosted via DataFirst at the University of Cape Town, alongside a six-paper working paper series and webinar:
Working with the Thrive by Five Index 2024: Explorations of Early Learning Systems in South Africa
Built on nationally representative data on 5,001 four-year-olds across 1,388 early learning programmes, the dataset provides a detailed view of how children’s development is shaped by household conditions, programme characteristics, climate exposure, and structural context.
Ahead of public release, DataDrive2030 invited a small group of researchers to work with the data in depth. Their sustained engagement forms the foundation of the working paper series – offering concrete examples of how the dataset can be interrogated rigorously.
Why This Matters Now
These papers provide timely evidence to inform national debates on climate vulnerability, programme quality, enrolment gaps, structural inequality, resilience under adversity, and subsidy design in early childhood development.
The Working Papers
1. Early Learning Under Climate Stress: Extreme Rainfall and Child Development in South Africa
This paper examines whether exposure to extreme rainfall over the preceding 18 months is associated with differences in child development outcomes.
Findings indicate significant negative associations between rainfall exposure and emergent literacy as well as cognition/executive function, with no consistent effects observed for numeracy or social-emotional functioning. Effects are domain-specific rather than uniform across all measures.
This study compares the relative contribution of child skills, caregiver characteristics, and preschool programme measures in predicting early numeracy and literacy.
Results indicate that child-level skills remain the strongest predictors in multivariate models, with household conditions also consistently associated. Preschool quality indicators show more limited and domain-specific associations.
3. Cognitive Gains from ELP Enrolment
This paper examines associations between enrolment in early learning programmes and developmental outcomes.
Non-enrolled children score, on average, approximately 5.8 ELOM points lower than comparable enrolled peers – equivalent to roughly five to six months of developmental difference. Associations are strongest in cognition/executive function and emergent literacy domains.
However, enrolment effects are conditional on instructional quality. Children only benefit from early learning programmes when instructional quality meets at least a basic standard. When instructional practices are weak, enrolled children perform no better than comparable children who are not enrolled.
Gains are amplified in programmes demonstrating at least basic instructional quality and in cases of sustained exposure of two or more years. The findings are associational rather than causal.
4. The Relationship Between Risks to Caregiver Mental Health and Child Learning Outcomes
This study assesses whether proxy caregiver mental health risk indicators remain predictive once household socioeconomic context is included.
Household asset levels show strong associations with child outcomes. Proxy caregiver risk indicators do not retain independent significance once socioeconomic conditions are accounted for.
This paper applies machine learning approaches to examine whether patterns of school readiness can be predicted among children facing socioeconomic adversity.
Using individual, household, and early learning programme variables, the analysis explores which combinations of factors are associated with developmental resilience. The study demonstrates how advanced modelling techniques can be applied to nationally representative early childhood data.
This paper links Thrive by Five Index 2024 data with administrative records to examine whether differential receipt of the ECD subsidy is associated with variation in developmental outcomes.
The analysis contributes to ongoing debates about financing, targeting, and equity within South Africa’s early learning system.
Access the Dataset
The Thrive by Five Index 2024 dataset is available via DataFirst at the University of Cape Town.
After the launch on 25 March, the webinar recording will be made available below.
